Why Another Blog?

I've decided to set up another blog, (my other one is called Writer's Musings), because there are some topics just too weighty for that blog.

So here it is. In this space I'll explore more serious issues in more detail. I do not expect visitors to agree with me in all cases.
In this forum feel free to take off the gloves, grab a handful of mud and fight for what you believe in.

Simple rules, rather like cage-fighting in the blogosphere:
No direct name calling. No excessive profanity. No whining when smacked in the face with mud.
Sling inuendo. Feel free to ask leading questions even if in a snide tone.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Electoral Map Review for 27 September 2008

Clarence Page, in a recent commentary, took up the issue that there may be a hidden bias that is not being captured in the daily polls. Some commentators seem to be laying the groundwork in the event that if Obama loses, they can rail about racism in America. But more to the point, Clarence Page argues that since this potential hidden bias is thought to be about 5% that means that Obama cannot be happy with any lead that is less than 6%.

Where is this racial bias? It is within the Democratic Party and among Independents. Most Republicans are going to vote Republican no matter whom the Democratic candidate is. What helps Republicans win these kinds of elections is getting Democrats to cross over and taking enough Independents. We can’t ignore this potential impact.

Other Trends:
Among Democrats Obama lead 85% to 10% for McCain with 5% undecided.
Among Independents McCain leads 45% to 44% for Obama with 11% undecided.
Among Republicans McCain leads 89% to 9% for Obama with only 2% undecided.

As close as things are, the election will turn on the 16% undecided Democrats and Independents.

If the hidden racial bias is the 5% that some are estimating, this is what the Electoral Map looks like on Election Day. The darker shades are where the candidate carries the state by more that 5%, while the lighter shades indicate less than 5%.

Racial Bias Scenario


It is the day after the first debate. Too early to tell what the impact will be, but the most recent major event (the financial meltdown) can be seen to have an impact.

Keep in mind that Real Clear Politics simply averages a bunch of polls without regard to potential bias or differences between the “registered voter” model and the “likely voter” model. My map includes other intangibles like trends over time, history and difficult to quantify attitudes. I also dropped old polls, obvious outliers and any “registered voter” polls.

Real Clear 27 September 2008


My Electoral Map 27 September 2008


Where We Agree But…

PA: Still close though the last week has improved Obama’s numbers. Still a toss-up and not out of reach for McCain.

MI: After cutting Obama’s lead to about 2%, McCain lost ground again, but suddenly Obama lost ground right back. Obama currently has a 3.75% lead. This one could move back to toss-up.

NH: Starting to lean McCain. Obama has a .4% lead right now. If the trend continues, McCain will take a lead soon.

Where We Differ:

ME: After my adjustments, Obama has a 4.5% lead. This one is getting close. Obama by 2% on Election Day.

OH: Although McCain’s lead has dropped somewhat, I’m still sticking with historical trends. McCain by 4% on Election Day.

WI: I’ve got WI in Obama’s column, but it is remaining closer than I expected. Obama by 3% on Election Day.

MN: I’ve still got MN in Obama’s column, but like WI it is close. Obama by 2% on Election Day.

IN: Again I’m sticking with history even though Obama has closed the gap. McCain by 4% on Election Day.

VA: Sticking with history even though Obama currently has a slight lead. McCain by 5% on Election Day.

FL: Obama seems to have peaked here. McCain by 5% on Election Day.

MO: McCain’s numbers softened a little, but I don’t think Obama will flip this one. McCain by 7% on Election Day.

NV: Obama not showing any traction here. McCain by 5% on Election Day.

NC: It’s close now, but not really a toss up. McCain by 6% on Election Day.

CO: Still really a toss up. Real Clear is counting some significant outliers in their numbers. McCain by 2% on Election Day.

NJ: I show Obama recovering here so that NJ is no longer just leaning Obama. Obama by 8% on Election Day.

WV: I don’t see Obama getting votes he did not get in the Primaries. McCain by 10% on Election Day.

2 comments:

sex scenes at starbucks said...

I can't understand "undecided" since McCain has made the biggest blunder in our nation's history with Palin. If she ever becomes president, I will seriously have to consider living elsewhere in the world. She's more driven than Bush is when it comes to nosediving this country.

J. L. Krueger said...

Aw Sex,

I just know you are trying to provoke me with the "move to another country" comment.

I can't understand "undecided" either, since the Democrats chose Obama as their candidate. Probably the biggest blunder in the history of a major party.

After one term of Obama, it will mean at least twenty years of Republican dominance. His socialist agenda will truly destroy the country.

Do your homework on the economic crisis. Go look at the Community Revitalization Act of 1977 (Carter President, both houses controlled by the Democrats). THAT is what started this mess because that Act forced banks and mortgage companies to give loans to people who never would have qualified before.

Then look to 1993 when Clinton was President and again Democrats controlled both Houses of Congress. They strengthened the CRA with threats to strip banks and mortgage companies of credit ratings and other penalties if they did not expand their loans to meet hard quotas.

Follow that to 2003, 2005 and 2007 when Bush and the Republicans tried to get legislation passed that would reign in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (whose collapse initiated the current crisis). Democrats Barney Frank, Charles Rangel, Nancy Pelosi and Charles Schumer led the charge to beat back those efforts. Their line was that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were solid institutions with no problems.

All this information is available in the Library of Congress online, including all the statements of the culprits.

The laziness of the media and the American people in actually checking facts is astounding. How often have you and I been involved in "discussions" online where several participants admitted that they do not "really follow politics" but they are voting for so-and-so anyway. In other words, making an informed decision on their vote really isn't that important to them. The American people deserve the mess.

The right to vote comes with a responsibility to be educated on the issues. Look at the idiotic statements on both sides of the political divide and the apparent lack of interest by the middle. The American people ignore all but their handful of pet issues and on those are not ruled by reason either. Americans have ignored their responsibility and deserve the consequences.